About Dr. Yair Shapira

VP Marketing & Business Development

Alternative ways to charge for bandwidth. What is the best and for whom?

We previously discussed the 95/5 model, commonly used when charging for wholesale data capacity. I came across customers who prefer different methods to calculate their bandwidth utilization. Often the drive is to avoid 95/5 based on the perceived complexity in its calculations. Customers want a simple metric which they can audit. Nevertheless the models suggested are not always in the customer’s favor.

Let me expand upon it further. The following graph shows three models:

  • 95/5 – Every 5-minute sample equals the total volume in Bytes passed during the 5 minutes divided by 300 seconds and multiplied by 8 to obtain bps. The 95th percentile of 5-minute readings over the month is calculated (e.g. sample 8,208 of the sorter 8,640 samples in a 30-day month).
  • Average of daily peak-5-minutes – Every day the highest 5-minute reading is recorded. At the end of the month, the average of these peaks is calculated.
  • Average of daily peak-1-hour – Every 1-hour sample equals the total volume passed during the hour divided by 3,600 and converted to bps. Every day the peak hour reading is recorded. At the end of the month, the average of these peaks is calculated.
Picture1

Different ways to measure bandwidth utilization
The RED line reflects Avg Peak 5-minute
The GREEN line reflects Avg Peak-1-hour
The ORANGE line reflect 95/5

Other networks will obtain different results. It’s quite difficult to predict which model is better for whom, without actually calculating it. At DiViNetworks we usually use 95/5 to provide our capacity at half price (see here our pricing models).

What is your preferred method to calculate your bandwidth utilization?

What question do you like most from a prospect customer?

The question I like most is – “so how much money do you save me?” That’s usually a sign that we have shifted gears from pre-sales to negotiations. Even better, negotiations now start from the value we bring rather than the cost we incur.

Wholesale data capacity is quasi-commoditized (see Capacity Magazine), so market prices are known by the parties. Therefore it seems simple to calculate the value in replacing physical capacity with virtual capacity. Let’s consider an ISP with 3Gbps, paying $50/Mbps/month. By using DiViCloud, the ISP can now add 1Gbps of virtual capacity over the existing 3Gbps link. Seems simple – we provide a value of 50 x 1,000 = $50,000/month or $600,000/year.

It doesn’t end there. To add 1Gbps of traffic the ISP would typically take additional 1.2Gbps capacity, to avoid congestion. DiViCloud, on the other hand, generates virtual capacity, so there is no need to take spares; the traffic simply does not load the network. The alternative cost of 1.2Gbps physical capacity is $60,000/month or $720,000/year.

Moreover, DiViCloud’s capacity is charged by consumption, based on 95/5 model (see Dr. Peering). Physical capacity’s fees are usually for committed bandwidth, whether used or not. To compare apples to apples the ISP should consider the alternative price of burst-capacity rather than committed. Naturally this figure is higher. For example $65/Mbps/month, rendering DiViCloud’s value as $78,000/month or $936,000/year.

95/5 pricing model; Dr. Peering (http://drpeering.net/core/ch2-Transit.html)

The typical question at this stage is – “Yes, but all you are doing is deferring costs and not replacing them. As demand increases we will eventually have to purchase additional physical capacity”. Well, if this were the case, then once the physical capacity is in place the ISP could turn off DiViCloud.

Physical capacity & virtual capacity mix

Physical capacity & virtual capacity mix

Virtual capacity is equivalent to adding an upstream pipe; it provides perpetual benefit regardless of the basic physical capacity. Actually, the ISP should always plan to take about 70% of its capacity from physical upstream providers, while 30% will be provided as virtual capacity at Half Price.

Relevant Posts:

How can the IP price gap be bridged? Hint: Beam me up Scotty

Is IP Transit a commodity?

Demand for International data capacity grows 50% and more annually

Can Broadband Access Heal The World Economy? (To be discussed at G20)

 

 

What happens in an Internet minute?

Intel recently published a nice infographic slicing one minute of Internet traffic.

According to the infographic:

  • Aggregated Internet throughput is 85Tbps (639,800 GB per minute)
  • Pandora pumps 704Gbps (61,141 hours of music per minute, assuming 192Kbps)
  • Flickr pushes 530Gbps (20 million photos, assuming 200KB average photo)
  • YouTube generates 1.3Tbps (1.3 million video views, assuming 1Mbps average bit-rate)

I have some question marks regarding the figures. Traffic reports from various sources – Sandvine, DiViNetworks and others – show that in terms of throughput, YouTube comprises 5-15% of the overall traffic, whereas Pandora and Flickr do not make it to the major traffic contributors list at all.

White Smoke Over-The-Top

Internet behavior during special events is always of interest. Last week we had our eyes on the Sistine Chapel chimney and its manifestation across the Internet. When would the black smoke turn white?

Naturally many viewers across the globe were watching live video from the Vatican simultaneously. The smart nodes in our DiViCloud network could identify these simultaneous similar sessions.

We found out that high peaks were demonstrated in international traffic flowing to Central American and specifically to Costa Rica and El Salvador. The graphs below, taken from a specific ISP in Costa Rica, show the clear live traffic spike, comprising over 10% of the total international traffic.

Picture1

Our DiViLive value-added-service unifies multiple live-video sessions into a compacted format. By using DiViLive, ISPs can load x10 live sessions on the same bandwidth.

Are all HTTP objects created equal?

You already know that we like to take close look at our traffic to improve our large and growing network. We also share our findings in the global data flow report. This time we analyzed HTTP objects flowing through our network.

DiViNetworksHTTPObjectsTrafficBySourceThe graph shows the percentage of overall HTTP objects flowing downstream in our network. Reminder – our network delivers international data capacity from 15 major Internet exchange points to over 100 ISPs in regions where capacity is expensive.

It’s interesting to compare the HTTP objects mix to the capacity volume mix, as we presented in September 2012.

The winner of the HTTP objects contest – Facebook, reaches 4-6th when it comes to volumes. CDNs such as Limelight and Edgecast, contributing significant volumes, apparently do that with much larger objects, hence do not appear on the HTTP objects map.
Dropbox, on the other hand, is an HTTP pump but at relatively low throughput volumes. My guess – HTTP graph provides early hints to the rise of new content pumps. As Dropbox free storage quota grows, we will see more and more traffic from their AS.
Want another hint? I was very surprised to hear today that Amazon’s traffic is balanced. Yes, their incoming traffic is as big as their outgoing. How come? Perhaps it has to do with Dropbox stored on Amazon’s S3.

How vulnerable is international connectivity?

I came across an interesting BBC article – “The Internet’s weakest links,” analyzing the vulnerability of a country’s international connectivity. The vulnerability metric, adopted from Renesys’ blog, is the number of international Internet gateways (IIG) a country has. To be more precise – the number of AS (autonomous systems) actually connected to networks abroad. Renesys term this a Country’s International Frontier.
Let’s take Myanmar as an example. Searching Hurricane Electric’s database for networks in Myanmar you will find five AS’s. Digging a bit you’ll find that only MPT (AS45558) connects to international networks, whereas the other networks connect to the world via MPT. Myanmar has, therefore, only a single company in its international frontier, making it very vulnerable.

International connectivity vulnerability

Governments in several countries enjoy centralization of international connectivity, enabling them to monitor, filter or block all international traffic. You often see countries with a single IIG, owned by the incumbent telecom operator, which in turn is government controlled.
Nevertheless, appreciating the drawbacks in narrow international frontier, regulators are slowly relaxing their policies, slowly opening the IIG market, while maintaining most of their interests.
ISPs served by the DiViCloud network actually peer with us (AS57731) over-the-top of their existing upstream providers, enjoying the benefits of direct international peering, without physical connectivity. That is, of course, apart from the 50% discount they have on the international capacity.

How do you think this map will change two years from now?

Capacity trends in Africa 2013

IDC recently published the key telecom trends in Africa for 2013. I took the liberty to select and re-order trends relevant for the wholesale capacity market.
African Cables
Wireless broadband proliferation – LTE will gain momentum as a mainstream commercial offering and WiFi will emerge as a viable complementary offering to 3G and LTE. IDC predicts that commercial LTE services will roll out earlier than previously expected at 2014/2015, starting with South Africa and expanding pan-African. The growing demand for broadband will be satisfied by offloading to WiFi (with WiMAX backhaul) as a temporary or permanent solution. The proliferation of broadband wireless network in Africa will pose a huge load on the international capacity (see post), which in Africa’s case may be more expensive than the access network itself.
Networks consolidation - The number of merger and acquisition transactions in Africa has declined significantly since 2007. However, IDC expects this to change in 2013, as IT and Telecom services converge. This identified trend is relevant for the regions top telecom players. Yet, when it comes to the hundreds of local ISPs in Africa, this means bad news. Consolidation of tier-1 operators means ISPs will have fewer upstream providers to buy bandwidth from resulting in reduced competition and slower decline of wholesale prices.
Rural connectivity - With governments in countries such as Zambia funding and running trial rural networks, IDC expects rural communications to become an nascent reality in 2013. Satellite connectivity will remain a force to be reckoned with. While undersea fiber optic cables may be bringing unprecedented bandwidth to the African coast, satellite connectivity is helping to take this connectivity inland and to the most remote regions, where fiber infrastructure may not be economically viable to roll out.  Advances in satellite technology (e.g. Ka) have allowed satellite providers to offer services at prices that are in fact cheaper than some incumbents.
IDC marks 2013 as a turning point in Africa’s telecom sector, focusing on last mile broadband networks. Bringing traffic to Africa and transporting it within Africa remains a challenge, amplified as access networks advance.
DiViNetworks is addressing these expensive segments, offering international capacity at half price all the way to any ISP anywhere. We are already serving about 50 ISPs in Africa and growing rapidly.

How much does it cost to provide broadband in Australia and New-Zealand?

I recently came across a thorough study by Market Clarity (download it here), which focused on the differences in the value and costs of ISPs on the opposite sides of the Tasman sea.

The median bandwidth allocation per residential subscriber is quite similar in Australia and New-Zealand (161Kbps and 128Kbps respectively). The network cost per subscriber per month, however, is 50% more expensive in Australia than in New-Zealand ($41 and $27 respectively); see image below.

Monthly network cost per subsciber in Australia and New-Zealand

Monthly network cost per subscriber in Australia and New-Zealand

Even when normalizing the cost per Mbps allocated, rather than per subscriber, Australia has higher costs; see below.

Monthly network cost per Mbps allocated in Australia and New-Zealand

Monthly network cost per Mbps allocated in Australia and New-Zealand

Transit and transport costs account for 27% and 23% in the network cost in Australia and New-Zealand respectively. These costs can be significantly eased by taking modern approaches to wholesale capacity.

Visit DiViNetworks to learn more.

How big is the developmental impact of broadband?

Broadband Internet access and economic prosperity go hand in hand. Since many of our ISP customers are in emerging markets we were wondering as to the correlation between the two.

We used SpeedTest‘s household download speed, Wiki‘s Internet penetration and the World Bank‘s GDP per capita.

Correlating the connected-household speed with the GDP (top graph below) you find that every 1Mbps correlates to $1,000 GDP per capita. When taking the Internet penetration into consideration, i.e. the average speed (bottom graph below), every 1Mbps correlates to $7,000 GDP per capita.

GDP_vs_ConnectedDownloadSpeedGDP_vs_AvgDownloadSpeedThe demand on the international links is linear to the average household download speed. The higher the penetration and the wider the access network are, the larger the load is on the international links feeding the country’s demand for capacity.

Assuming bandwidth and GDP are not only correlated, but also causal – economies can grow by finding affordable means to expand their international capacity.

We are happy to offer international capacity at half the market price and take part in accelerating economies growth.

Does LTE impact traffic patterns on the International network?

LTE is becoming a reality  in developed countries, but even more in emerging markets. The reasons being (a) many developing countries do not have fixed broadband infrastructure (b) MNOs and MVNOs skipped the 2.5-3.75G bubble and enjoy capital and demand.

LTE’s RAN indeed offers broadband speeds. LTE backhaul is addressed by major vendors (some of which are embedding DiViNetworks’ technology). Yet deploying LTE in emerging markets places a huge load on the feeding International link.

Some MNOs in such markets connect to the Internet by merely a single STM-1 (155Mbps) – that’s equivalent to the RAN capacity of 1.5 LTE cells. These operators will invest tens of millions in rolling out LTE, yet will have to spend similar amounts per year to feed the bandwidth beast.

Core Analysis’ Patrick Lopez explains the elastic nature of video traffic – let it have one finger, it takes your whole hand. Combine this with 85% of LTE traffic being video (Vodafone Germany) and the challenge is clearer than ever.

At DiViNetworks we are focused on helping ISPs (that includes MNOs) to change the economics of their international links using our DiViCloud network. Some of our MNO customers are planing to deploy LTE soon and are working closely with us on sizing their International network.